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Technology Stocks : Wolf speed
WOLF 20.62-5.2%2:19 PM EST
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To: EvanG who wrote (10535)8/18/2022 9:41:06 AM
From: slacker7111 Recommendation

Recommended By
OldAIMGuy

   of 10712
 
Are you saying the design ins make sense to you?


That a quarter could have enough design ins that it almost equals the annual revenue several years out is a strange situation.


They need a better backlog type metric. Something over a year or two time frame.






Yes, I would like to hear their design win revenue backlog as well as the longer-term number.

I wouldn't describe this quarter's design-in number as strange though. Staggering is more like it. I thought the slide that they provided in the last analyst day illustrated the design-in revenue profile well. The ~25% of design-in that are industrial should ramp over the next few years while the design cycle for autos means we won't see a peak for those revs until ~'26.

If FY'22 design in revenues of $6.4 billion have a similar profile, they likely added ~$1 billion to their '26 revs. If you assume all of that revenue was autos, that probably translates to supplying SiC to north of 3m vehicles.

Is there double ordering? I think that depends on how much upfront money Wolfspeed is requiring for some of the large volume orders. At a minimum, Wolfspeed's capex plans indicate that they believe the revenue is coming.

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