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Technology Stocks : Wolf speed
WOLF 26.32+0.6%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST
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To: Lou Weed who wrote (10536)8/18/2022 10:13:54 AM
From: slacker7111 Recommendation

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Lou Weed

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Their D-IN metric is misleading IMO. That number doesn't represent an annual revenue - I believe it's the estimated lifetime revenue of each D-IN. Plus, does a D-IN mean a D-WIN?? I've been in the biz long enough to see D-INs vaporize due to priority/cost cutting etc. Aaaaand - if it does become a D-WIN there will likely be second and third sources taking a % of that number.




I think their long-term guidance accounts for this. If you assumed that they could continue winning design-ins at the current rate and actually converted that to revenues, then FY '26 revs would be well above $3 billion. It is unlikely that they would even have the capacity to support that.

The issue for the company is that the design cycle for autos is insanely long as is the time needed to build a new fab. The design in numbers are given to support the long-term capex. I certainly hope that the large volume orders (such as GM's supply assurance) are accompanied by payments. They have yet to publish their 10k, but I hope some additional info is in there.

I do agree that they should be giving a near-term backlog number that is supported by firm commitments. They give a backlog number in the 10k but it is so caveated that it is hard to know whether to put any weight into it.

Our backlog at June 27, 2021 was approximately $763.9 million, compared with a backlog of approximately $602.7 million at June 28, 2020. Because of changes in a number of factors, including manufacturing lead times and customer order patterns, we do not believe that our backlog, as of any particular date, is necessarily indicative of actual net revenue for any future period. Significant amounts of our backlog relate to agreements that extend past one year.


It is also long past time that they split materials and devices into separate divisions and gave revs and GM's for each. They said that they were looking at doing that during a call several years ago but analysts havent pushed the issue and companies never want to give out more data.
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