After wading through two days of posts, without a single bit of analysis other than cheerleading and fantasy visions, I hear a deafening silence on the news tonight...a $100 million bridge loan?? What does this mean? I'm sure they're only days away from a significant equity infusion, so why take on debt? What's the rush?
Perhaps it's because this baby is bleeding the green stuff in a big way...The PR campaign here?? Awesome, among the very best I've seen....you take a passive investment filing from Michael Price, same as his group has made in PHSYB and FHS ( two other troubled HMOs), add the names KKR, the Continental Airlines turnaround genius. Who else?? Where's Warren Buffett?? The reality is that this company is evaporating before our eyes....we have no way to know how much cash is being collected, or how much is owed. We know they are undercapitalized, and an insurance company that becomes undercapitalized can become an ugly thing for its equity holders. There is no way a buyer could possibly know what things are worth here, and this ain't like the Rolling Stones' song "Time is on my side"..the longer this ship remains adrift, the less the value of the franchise, as doctors and patients become frustrated. The prospect of sharp price increases won't do much to help the value of the franchise either. Franchise this. Wait! DLJ shows up with a bandaid....a desperate cash infusion.??
Norman Payson?? Do any of you bother to look at the man's background and track record?? He cobbled together some flimsy HMOs, went on a high growth acquisition strategy. He then showed he couldn't manage them after he bought them. Stock collapsed 75% before he sold it to Cigna for a song...just the guy you want to come in and turn around OXHP....hilarious....I believe there is a franchise value here. It's just a lot lower than here. Good Luck.
Do any of you have any analysis, a single shred of data which supports a bullish view?? Or just bull market hope?? |
