Those were pretty good posts, looking back.
In combination with Xilinx, AMD is in the range of your 3-5 year target, within year from my post, 15 months from your post.
BTW, somebody did some math and projected that NVidia client graphics revenue will be in $1 billion range in Q3. down from ~3.8 billion a year ago. This is the impact of both crypto crash and NVidia hardly selling any new desktop dGPU chips, while the inventories are so high.
It will be interesting to see what the true size of the gaming market turns out to be (as far as dGPUs), once the inventory issues get resolved. Maybe we will know from Q1 2023 results. By then, new generation cards should be widely available from both companies, availability should be good, and prices should be competitive. No reason for customers to hold back purchases, or unable to find what they want on the market.
My guess that without crypto, the client dGPU market may be worth 2 to 3 billion per quarter
With the supply constraints lifted, good products on the market and in the pipeline, AMD is finally in position to make a play for this market and gain some share. Maybe + $1 billion from Q2 2022 results to Q4 2023.
Also, interesting how the puzzle of how TSMC would allocate the capacity resolved itself. A year ago, we were before the peak of the pre-payment frenzy, and probably less than 6 months from peak of that frenzy, companies are trying to figure out how to get out of their order commitments, with minimum loss of prepayments.
Regarding datacenter
I am going to guess that Hopper is optimized for PCIe5, so we will see how things play out with Sapphire Rapids still being delayed, and NVidia planning to launch Hopper...
The reason NVidia is using EPYC platform in current generation in the first place is because Intel did not have PCIe4 server CPUs, only AMD did...
NVidis strength in the datacenter is still overwhelming, but AMD has a better rate of improvement, and at one point, these lines will intersect. Probably with Mi300, from which point, NVidia will have to depend on the software moat to protect its hardware from stronger hardware competitor. |
