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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Sam who wrote (497450)8/25/2022 1:27:51 PM
From: Elroy Jetson2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Sam
Wharf Rat

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Either we win or World War III begins has been Putin's bluster from the beginning. — That schtick is wearing a little thin, as literally no one believes him.
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Russia is in a world of hurt:

Offering $35 per barrel discounts on oil - and a tanker trip from Russia to China takes 42 days each way as opposed to 3 to anywhere in Europe - Russia doesn't have anywhere near enough tankers to avoid well shut-ins;

In order to redirect their gas from the Ural fields away from Europe and toward China, Russia will have to build the world's longest pipeline through Russia, Mongolia and into China - and China won't pay for that - and the construction will take years;

It will take Russia more than a decade or two to build LNG plants to move the gas instead;

Russia's import sector is down 2/3, a significant part of their economy.
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Partially hastened by Russian cut-offs, more than 50% of European natural gas demand is now serviced with LNG - Germany has contracted for two LNG carriers to be used as fixed LNG regassification barges. It's going to happen fast.

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