Without a continuous, reliable flow of logistics, Ukraine cannot defend, which includes carrying out local counter-attacks while setting conditions for and conducting counter-offensives against created or existing Russian vulnerabilities. Both are necessary to push back Russian forces and put Ukraine in the strongest possible negotiating position when that time comes. Without the confidence that the supplies are present and available — not “trust me, they’re coming” — Ukraine’s political and military leaders are likely less to risk any major counter-offensive. It would be imprudent for them to do otherwise. The U.S. must lead the allies in fixing this logistical-operational disconnect or risk losing the opportunities that Russian weakness presents and lowering the probability of achieving Ukraine and American goals.

As it has been since at least the beginning of World War II, American resolve and leadership is on display. The stakes are high, and they’re not limited to Ukraine. Once again, like it or not, the world is depending upon U.S. leadership. America cannot succeed by taking counsel of its fears; it must decide and act to achieve its policy goals, mitigating the risks inherent in such leadership as best it can.

In the Ukraine war, the U.S., NATO and other allies must provide Ukraine what it needs to succeed via a consistent, reliable logistics flow. Continuing ebb and flow will drag out the war. There remains the risk of widening or escalating the war, but Putin’s capacities have been so diminished that the probability of his acting on that desire is low.