Yeah, I hear you.
>>One of the things I find most difficult about fonix is having an positive opinion about its future, and
not really having much to show why my feelings have been that way except circumstantial material.<<
****************
Hi Parx,
Sometimes I have found there's a useful distinction for me to make. The distinction is dynamic because the target (the company and/or the stock) is (are) changing.
I try to keep in mind keeping an active distinction between the company and the stock.
You know what I'm talking about so I won't belabor the point.
I think that the company will do just fine (in three to five years we'll probably be going, "Wow, so that's what it was all about").
All the general chat-ter about the directors enriching themselves...well, duh...this isn't volunteer work at the local shelter...is just naive bull-shyght. It's just the whining of how much the haves have by those who don't have so much. It's normal. It's understandable. Sometimes I feel similar levels of envy.
But for the clear eyed, it's important not to get distracted by such sideshows.
As much as I have criticized the management recently, I believe that these guys have done a remarkable job getting fonix to where it is. Somebody should use it as a case study in a text book of one way to move a good idea to personal riches. Yeah, yeah, Mr Pink, I know what you're gonna say, and so does everyone else, so don't bother to go there.
IMHO, questions about the company at this point are a waste of breath-width and bandwidth...maybe chatter about its faults or strengths is a good way to pass the time and to give the keyboard a pounding at AOL or SI, but IMO fonix will transform VR and a whole lot more.
But IMHO the stock is problemmatic (some will say, duh, to that too) but not for the obvious reasons, though those are enough, already.
Only time will tell. There are several variables, anyone of which could continue to corrupt the price for the lowly holder of a few thousand common shares. You're a professional, and you know there are a couple of hundred ways that a stock's price at any given point can get trashed.
The shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis are getting up there...anyone got a calculation of that...the fully diluted basis of shares? Variables that reflect that number of shares are what I am alluding to. For example, how many more shares beyond this can we expect to be issued in one form or another?
Concerns like this will drive mgmt's decisions about the stock.
The mgmt has to do something to get the price up (remember the agreements with the engineers, etc.), and there are various ways of doing it. Some nice to holders of common, some not so nice. Those jeopardies need to be looked at in a fairly coldblooded, clear-eyed way if long the stock. If you hold options or preferred and/or a bazillion shares of common, the downside of various choices is not so brutal.
You know as well as I do that companies go through stages, phases, if you will. Stocks of those companies do so as well. But not necessarily in a linked relation. They are not siamese twins.
The fat lady isn't singing about the stock (unless you've been short), but I hear her song loud and clear about the company. It's just a matter of time until everyone hears it.
But whether the stock will have anything to do with the success of the company is wholly another matter. It will probably, but there will probably be some munching and crunching, weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth along the way. Because the stock price has to go up but not necessarily with the same multiples that were assumed when the stock was first bought.
Parx, I respect you a lot. If anything I have said offends you, I apologize now. We've knocked this thing (fonix) around now for quite some time, and I hope to do so again with you in the future.
Best wishes, and I for one am happy to see a healthier market these days...
Ed |
