The USD appears to be affected LT by 7 year (small extent), 8 year and 9 year cycles. It kind of mixes it up.
In the shorter to IT term, a slightly longer than 18 month cycle and its 2X cousin have recently been quite prevalent. Specially that long 18 month cycle.
I have the 2009 and 2017 tops as 8 year tops, next 8 year top in 2025. I have the 2010.5 year top as a 9 year top. A slightly delayed 9 yr top very early 2020. Next 9 yr top in late 2028? All speculation but these 8 and 9 year tops should be big tops, one of them The Top. Dollar and currency cycles like the longer waves and cycles.
In looking at pm's I'm thinking the 2025 dollar top is the trigger and maybe the big top.
Shorter term we have an apparent 18 month cycle top coming up, first half of 2023. Should result in a correction of some soize. I have this wave up as a 3rd wave, should hit 120 plus. Whether this 2023 top coming up is the 3rd wave top is yet unknown. But that is how I have it at present, and no big dollar top until further down the road.
I see the counter side of this supposed 2023 IT dollar top and correction in bitcoin and silver pms in particular, awa gold pms. It shows up in the bottom cycle analyses. I think this cycle coming up should furnish quite a good pop in many of these, with that bottom probably first quarter 2023. Could be a great way to get a head start on the next pm boom. I.e play the cycle.
And this follows what we pm'd about in treasuries. I think we have an intermediate top coming up in rates, first half of 2023. I mentioned the 4.5 year cycle. It is possible in the dollar that the last 9 yr cycle top was mid 2018 coincident with that 18 month cycle top shown in the chart. The 4.5 yr cycle is roughly three 18 month cycles, and 1/2 of a 9 yr cycle. Off that mid 2018 cycle top, the next 4.5 yr cycle top is as shown, first half of 2023.
And if that mid 2018 top is the last 9 yr top, the next one is 2027, rather than 2028. This fits in better with longer term charts and cycles, than a 2028 9 yr cycle top.
Lot of possibilities but bottom line from what I see in cycles .... dollar is not ready to fall apart. We should have a decent correction and pull back in 6 to 7 months best estimate.
There is really a strong 7 year cycle in CDE, next 7 yr bottom early 2023. Been very precise for the last three 7 yr cycles. For example.
Fit like a glove? Nothing fits like a glove in this business.
You did not ask about gold. But this fits with what is going on gold as well. 2011/2012 and 2020 tops were most likely 9 yr tops. So gold is falling and will have to fall into a 9 yr bottom which is a ways down the road. My best fit on the next 9 yr bottom is 2027. Next 8 yr bottom is probably 2025 and I would pick this one to be the next big bottom.
Powell's move coming up is of some importance, I'm thinkin a half % raise, which should send dollar yet higher, and head the dollar awa rates into that 2023 IT cycle top.
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