HI RD,
Supply has not caught up with demand.
The draws continue vs. the 5 year averages of the complex, and that is with a million barrels per day draw on the SPR.(The SPR is now depleted by 186.7 million barrels vs last year)!
We are in the shoulder season of gasoline demand , with the winter demand of fuel oil yet to kick in. Jet fuel has yet to peak as some countries are not yet open to free travel.
This is the current EIA summary report:
PDF link: eia.gov
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million barrels per day during the week ending September 9, 2022 which was 94,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 988,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 2.6% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 522,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 125,000 barrels per day. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 429.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels from last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels last week and are about 21% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels from last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.7 million barrels a day, down by 7.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, down by 9.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 11.0% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 2.5% compared with the same four-week period last year. The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price was $87.27 per barrel on September 9, 2022, $0.02 below last week’s price but $17.45 more than a year ago. The spot price for conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was $2.672 per gallon, $0.048 more than last week’s price and $0.365 above a year ago. The spot price for ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel in the New York Harbor was $3.604 per gallon, $0.063 below last week’s price but $1.464 over a year ago. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to $3.690 per gallon on September 12, 2022, $0.056 below last week’s price but $0.525 over a year ago. The national average retail diesel fuel price decreased to $5.033 per gallon, $0.051 per gallon less than last week’s price but $1.661 higher than a year ago. Highlights Refinery Activity (Thousand Barrels per Day) Four Weeks Ending 9/9/22 9/2/22 9/10/21 Crude Oil Input to Refineries 16,111 16,211 15,175 Refinery Capacity Utilization (Percent) 92.2 92.7 86.9 Motor Gasoline Production 9,628 9,756 9,882 Distillate Fuel Oil Production 5,042 5,082 4,535 See Table 2. Stocks (Million Barrels) 9/9/22 9/2/22 9/10/211 Crude Oil (Excluding SPR)2 429.6 427.2 417.4 Motor Gasoline3 213.0 214.8 218.1 Distillate Fuel Oil3 116.0 111.8 131.9 All Other Oils4 471.9 471.3 457.2 Crude Oil in SPR 434.1 442.5 620.8 Total4 1,664.7 1,667.6 1,845.4 See Table 1. 1 Year-ago data originally published for crude oil stocks included lease stocks which began being excluded from commercial crude oil inventories with data for the week ended October 7, 2016. 2 Includes those domestic and Customs-cleared foreign crude oil stocks held at refineries and tank farms or in transit thereto, and in pipelines. 3 Excludes stocks located in the "Northeast Heating Oil Reserve", "Northeast Regional Refined Petroleum Product Reserve", and "State of New York’s Strategic Fuels Reserve Program." For details see Appendix C. 4 Prior to April 10, 2020 this included stocks of propylene held at terminals. Net Imports (Thousand Barrels per Day) Four Weeks Ending 9/9/22 9/2/22 9/10/21 Crude Oil 2,401 2,115 3,313 Petroleum Products -4,342 -4,138 -2,464 Total -1,940 -2,023 848 See Table 1. Products Supplied (Thousand Barrels per Day) Four Weeks Ending 9/9/22 9/2/22 9/10/21 Motor Gasoline 8,562 8,775 9,413 Distillate Fuel Oil 3,552 3,751 3,994 All Other Products 7,540 7,605 7,719 Total 19,654 20,131 21,126 See Table 1. Prices (Dollars per Gallon except as noted) 9/9/22 9/2/22 9/10/21 World Crude Oil (Dollars per Barrel) – – – Spot Prices WTI Crude Oil - Cushing (Dollars per Barrel) 87.27 87.29 69.82 Conv. Regular Gasoline - NYH 2.672 2.624 2.307 No. 2 Heating Oil - NYH 3.436 3.482 1.980 Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel - NYH 3.604 3.667 2.140 Propane - Mont Belvieu 1.038 1.084 1.193 Retail Prices 9/12/22 9/5/22 9/13/21 Motor Gasoline - Regular 3.690 3.746 3.165 Motor Gasoline - Midgrade 4.217 4.262 3.618 Motor Gasoline - Premium 4.549 4.585 3.868 On-Highway Diesel Fuel 5.033 5.084 3.372 See Table 10,11,12,14. Prices (Dollars per Gallon except as noted) 9/9/22 9/2/22 9/10/21 World Crude Oil (Dollars per Barrel) – – – Spot Prices WTI Crude Oil - Cushing (Dollars per Barrel) 87.27 87.29 69.82 Conv. Regular Gasoline - NYH 2.672 2.624 2.307 No. 2 Heating Oil - NYH 3.436 3.482 1.980 Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel - NYH 3.604 3.667 2.140 Propane - Mont Belvieu 1.038 1.084 1.193 Retail Prices 9/12/22 9/5/22 9/13/21 Motor Gasoline - Regular 3.690 3.746 3.165 Motor Gasoline - Midgrade 4.217 4.262 3.618 Motor Gasoline - Premium 4.549 4.585 3.868 On-Highway Diesel Fuel 5.033 5.084 3.372 |
