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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 156.06+0.6%12:59 PM EST
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To: Mason Barge who wrote (4799)2/11/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Actually made a few pennies on my AMAT short -- just goes to show.

I'm out of the sector except for a healthy dose of SFAM which I've put in the long-term folio for LTGC tax treatment. I am really worried about a number of things: First, Japan is going to announce its 1998 spending numbers in a month or two, and with continued bad cash flow for pretty much everyone except NEC and Sony, it may be ugly

Second, Korea could get worse due to politics, i.e. union intransigence about layoffs. I imagine the IMF isn't going to let them keep operating DRAM fabs at a loss -- i.e., they aren't about to tolerate the Koreans taking IMF funds while they're dumping DRAM chips.

Third, Indonesia could get VERY ugly. While the country isn't nearly as important as a lot of others either as a chip producer or banking source, it could simply collapse financially/explode politically. It's a loss of market for Japan and Korea and generally bad vibes for the other Asian countries with political unrest of their own.

Fourth, funds who are buying into semi equipment shares are going to have a gut check when industry btb figures come out. I'm guessing some of them might bail.

I could miss a big upside not being long, and I could miss a big downside not being short, but I don't feel like gambling. If the market retreats, I am sure of making money by buying low and waiting for the recovery. If not, I am at 0. That said, I might pick up a few shares of Asyst or Teradyne on temporary retreats.
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