Re <<If European leaders do not open their eyes, their alliance with Washington will lead to the collapse of the Union’s economy.>>
Below report just in in-tray this morning, notes taken by the coconut last night who takes in many views and is practicing triangulation
unclear how many of her cohort has been to Russia or has Russian relatives
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Dada, the mearshimer guy is right in front of me
Basically said that Putin isn’t nation-building, not an imperialist, understood that it would be empowering Ukrainian nationalism and wouldn’t be feasible. Basically said that this is Russia’s version of the Monroe doctrine, like the Cuban missile crisis, where Nato is seen as a threat to Russian existence, so Russia is just trying to wreck Ukraine for payback/keep Nato away.
Said Russian military hasn’t been improved that much since 2008, but US has been training Ukrainians since 2014, which is why they are doing surprisingly well.
Says strategic aim of Russia in wrecking Ukraine is to turn it into a dysfunctional rump state, taking territory in addition to Crimea and control the black sea coastal line to economically damage Ukraine, possible the Russians will take down Ukraine electric grid. Basically to keep it from being a threat to Russia and prevent it from being an effective alliance power to Nato.
Fears that, if Russians see Ukraine and NATO as existential threat, and what the US’s attempt to wreck Russian economy can mean, they may feel pressured enough to go to Nuclear weapons, which is why Biden is being very careful.
Limits to what US can do in terms of pursuing, cuz of nuclear option, fears there’s no way around it.
An example of why Russia believes Ukraine is an existential threat, even though they have nuclear weapons, is like how Israel has nukes but still fears being wiped out in the Middle East.
Figures Russia figures US faces near-peer issue in Asia Pacific, Russia has free hands in Europe.
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