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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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Lee Lichterman III

Sun Tzu

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (69873)	9/21/2022 2:29:51 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 97556

Recession watch: I haven’t posted this in a while, because the conclusion seems obvious. Yield curve: 20-year low schrts.co PMI has now been below 54 for 3 months: tradingeconomics.com Junk Bond Spread: fred.stlouisfed.org tradingeconomics.com U-shaped graph, since the 2020 spike. Expect an identical spike in 2023. GDP growth rate YOY: reported quarterly tradingeconomics.com. Trending down since 2Q21: Non Farm Payrolls tradingeconomics.com <125k/month = recession levels. The only solidly bullish indicator. Copper trending down. schrts.co Copper staying below the old $4 support line. Copper miners beginning to warn of excess supply in 2023, caused by reduced China demand, and collapsing European demand. Oil is usually closely correlated with copper. The previous disconnect has been resolved, with oil now setting new lows and lower highs steadily, in spite of supply constraints. Expect a brief spike in oil when the SPR runs dry. Sell that rally, as the downtrend will resume. The current Shiller PE ratio level is historically consistent with an annualized return of 0% over the next decade. chartstorm.substack.com Anyone who still thinks we can avoid a HardLanding, must be smoking something potent.

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