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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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From: Doren9/25/2022 1:34:35 AM
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Two reasons the Russians will lose... or Putin will order a tactical nuke strike.

1) Few Russian troops have reason to want to fight and a very good reason to avoid getting killed or maimed. They've seen a lot of their comrades die and they've seen a lot of Ukranians cursing at them. Most thought it'd be over quickly. Some are in it just for money, another reason to avoid getting killed "for their country." If they go on R&R it's their only freedom, or a chance to escape, defect, surrender or try to forget all of it. When the draftees start showing up they'll be more likely to defect or surrender asap. They may frag an incompetent officer in an attempt to raise the odds of their own survival hoping for a new competent officer. The more the odds are against them the more likely fragging will become an option.

The Ukrainians knew from the start it would be a long slog. They are highly committed and therefore willing to take chances and sacrifice their own lives to win battles and to save their fellow Ukrainians. They are willing to go all the way even if they lose because they have nothing to lose, particularly if their families are in the west out of harm's way. Living under a Putin dictatorship is to them death anyway, not life, living death. They have nothing to lose.

2) Competent Russian generals are mostly skeptical of Putin or are theoreticians never in the field or are incompetent officers appointed by Putin because of their loyalty to Putin rather than their competence. These last guys get poorly trained poorly motivated Russian grunts killed in ambushes by the bushel. The poorly trained grunts don't have "street smarts" their only goal being to survive without major injury. When incompetent officers get their comrades killed they are only more motivated to survive. Training to them is just more agony. The only training they are interested in is how to survive in a battle, the only reason they have to kill Ukrainians is to survive. They'll do it but reluctantly when they aren't in danger. They don't want to take risks. They'll lie to officers when they fail or shirk their commands.

Russian officers also have one goal, to survive. They don't want to be with their troops in the front. They avoid the front and don't know the particulars of the terrain or lines. They mostly only visit the bare minimum to learn how to do what they are ordered to do with enough credibility that they aren't punished.

Ukrainian soldiers mostly weren't soldiers. Their training was either first hand or when they do train they are committed to learning how to kill Russians, and to do it for longer hours. They have nothing else to do. Their only R&R is to kill Russians and survive to see their kids live free from Putin. Survival is secondary to them, the only reason for it is to kill Russians another day. R&R to them is not good as it only prolongs the war. They cannot enjoy R&R... it's necessary only to rest and regroup for them. Their goal is to get better at what they do and make the Russians so miserable and afraid they'll start fragging their own officers rather than risking getting killed by enraged Ukrainians. They think constantly about what they do and how to do it better. They think constantly about how to ambush Russians, and each time they are successful they spread their learning and expertise to other groups. They are constantly learning what works and how to make it work better.

Ukrainian field officers are mostly picked by merit from the grunts for cunning and street smarts. These guys are no-nonsense people who've learned the reality of the current state of weapons and war. Every time they survive or kill they get better. Every time a Ukrainian is killed they are more motivated. Their troops trust them because they fight beside them. They know their own ground and pretty much know the ground the Russians live on. They have nothing better to to than to preserve their troops and kill Russians. Survival is secondary to them.

or 3) Maybe

I SPECULATE PRIVATELY that the Ukrainians have a secret western technological advantage the Russian's cannot match. The Russians are good programmers but cannot match our chip tech. If I'm right the Russians are going to suffer a lot, incrementally here there here there here there. Little by little but inevitably.

I was watching TV and the Ukrainians and I realized OH that's how they're doing that. The Russians had more but the Ukrainians do that part better... they hit better and hide better because of the tech.

I feel sorry for the Russian grunts and the people... its not their fault but Putin will make them suffer terribly.
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