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This is just one person's observations, but I am seeing a LOT of people who are planning to buy, upgrade or replace computers in the 1st half of 1998. In a very small circle of friends (less than 20 people), I can account for two laptops and 4 desktops that are going to be bought, with a couple more "leaning". These are all personal purchases, not purchases by companies for employees (well, one of the notebooks is "mixed use" and partially paid for by the employer). Also, I am seeing a lot of "older" retired people (60's, 70's and 80's) buying computers, almost exclusively for E-Mail and the internet, but computers never the less. If this is anything more than just a coincidence, if this is in any way typical, first and second quarter could surprise to the upside. Also, I think that almost everyone of the major mfgrs. had worked their inventories way down during the 4th quarter, which could further contribute to this. |
