ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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ajtj99

To: ajtj99 who wrote (70526)	9/28/2022 5:04:32 PM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 98135

What Walter is saying is trivially obvious to anyone who has studied long term charts. We are at October 2020 levels. The stock market almost never holds 2 year lows for extended periods. Even in the 1920s and 1930s it bounced and did not keep 2 year lows for long. So yes, at some point in time over the next 12 months, the stock market will be above its October 2020 highs. To not do so will mean that we'll be hitting a 3 year low and that we'll be keeping a 2 year low for more than a year. That is unprecedented. But as he said in a follow up tweet, you don't know how low it can get from here or when the bottom is. The above puts some parameters around that. It is of course also possible to have a first. That will be the case if we keep sliding deeper and then before we can go above today, EU or Russia or the US or some hedge fund or a new CV19 variant or whatever ends up blowing up the world capital markets. You may want to watch Stanley Druckenmiller's interview today at Delivering Alpha.

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