Three months later... and I still don't disagree...
I don't think we're at a bottom yet...
And, as I'd noted previously... "change" is taking three to five times longer than it seems it "should"... while the events in increment appear "not as random" as one might expect in a market that actually works.
I find it interesting that it appears... still... that essentially no one understands (or is admitting) why there is inflation... while blaming its existence and persistence on the voluntary factors in policies adopted that have worked to make it worse... which, of course, isn't "worse" if your policy actually intends to foster more of it... as seems is true of Team Bidenater.
I don't see it resolving any time soon... and, as there is no one advocating policy that will foster both growth and low inflation... don't expect to see that rather than "less than that" in some policy determined mix.
The dominant factor than... isn't as much policy or direction in trends as it is timing and related variation based in optimizing the spread between reality and disconnects in (timing) expectations from reality.
For gold bulls... that means both "buying opportunity" persisting now... and perhaps a far more extended than expected upside being likely... a resulting bull market likely to last a decade or more... but, also, perhaps having its vigorous early phases delayed by another year or two ? Just think back to the Carter-Reagan era in the transitions that occurred... Persistent inflation with future inflation already hardwired by 1976-1977... didn't drive gold soaring higher early in the Carter years ? But, by late in the growing swell of Carter's wave of economic mismanagement... things got interesting. Powell, of course, is not going to do what they did back then... to control inflation. And, lacking the will, there's also not the same economic flexibility to do it now...
Nothing I see is that far off of what I forecast years ago... a persistent global recession... clearly a global scale depression resulting in many places... but, with disparate impacts... least bad in the U.S., which is proving true today in spite of Biden's many efforts to make it be and prove it untrue.
Economics isn't driving policy, today... rather than being held hostage to politics... so shouldn't expect to see resolutions occur without the political impasses being resolved... and there's not much indicating that anything like a resolution of differences is likely to occur any time soon... so, "more of the same only more so"... ? |
