David, gee, maybe Kurlak really "can't whip a stock around any more than [Joe Nocera, Fortune writer] can."
IMHO, he may be suffering from a shortage of ammo (other than hedge-fund clients and individuals who are comfortable w/ shorting, who's around who hasn't gotten the message and sold?), a shortage of psychological shock value (Kurlak negative on chips - duh), and a shortage of successful calls in the VERY recent past, as the main stocks on the "watch for a Kurlaking" list have done very well in the rally (tough to say anything but "MU to 20? Looks you're a little well-done on that one right now).
And the big irony here is that for all his "faults", since I've been watching him, he's never been more right on the group's fundamentals.
Without having the "privelege" to hear his call or pull up his research, he's right in the sense that these stocks have come fairly far without any real fundamental underpinning in terms of earnings growth. Basically, 1) the attitude seems to be "Asia's in there already"; 2) TA says the bottom's already been tested twice, so go for it; 3) there's a lot of cash that seems to be coming back into the group; and 4) new analysts are getting hot and bothered over too many chip stocks which have lost earnings momentum and are not likely to regain momentum for several quarters.
A case of "the Axe who cried sell"?
Maybe expectations tied to Goldman Conf. are dampening the Kurlak effect somewhat on MU, but I'd also say a lack of "the Kurlak effect" is also hurting "the Kurlak effect."
Although low, there's always the risk that they could either trade down out of Goldman or the conf. has no effect. Based on what happens when MU speaks on "friendly" turf, my guess is that you'll see a positive spin. Maybe the Kurlaking even makes that more likely?
Probably going to hang out and wait. I do better with S-T tops.
The market's lack concern over Monicagate and Iraq continues to surprise me. Betty Currie seems to be the only person in the whole mess who has any sense of honor. Iraq is an incredibly frustrating situation in terms of the difference between what is possible and what is politically feasible given world opinion and given what is necessary to maintain balance of power in the region in the absence of a credible opposition in Iraq.
Good trading,
Tom |
