Opinion
Why missile strikes and a new military commander won't redress Putin's Ukraine woes
by Tom Rogan, National Security Writer & Online Editor |
October 11, 2022 04:18 PM
Launching long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian targets, on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin wreaked a measure of havoc. These strikes came in response to a legitimate Ukrainian military strike on Russia's Kerch Bridge, a key conduit for force deployments to Crimea. Putin has also appointed a new commander for his "special operation" in Ukraine. Namely, Sergey Surovikin, who formerly commanded Russian forces in Syria and is known for his aggressive use of firepower.
Still, neither missiles nor Surovikin can resolve the critical challenge Putin faces in Ukraine: the Russian military's inability to conduct major combined arms actions and to sustain forward deployed units. Reflecting as much, Surovikin's appointment reeks of a Hail Mary pass that has more to do with consolidating domestic propaganda than bolstering military operations. Surovikin's willingness to target hospitals in Syria deliberately might look bad globally, but it plays well with Russian ultranationalists who believe Putin has been too timid in Ukraine.
SIGNS TO WATCH FOR IF US BELIEVES A RUSSIAN NUCLEAR ATTACK ON UKRAINE IS IMMINENT
But Surovikin's Syria record isn't the only reason he got the Ukraine job. Surovikin is also a political loyalist who can be expected to do Putin's dirty work. The general has been accused of corruption on a number of occasions, including allegations that he sold weapons on the black market and had government contracts funneled to his family. Repeated allegations of bullying and beatings by junior officers under Surovikin's command also suggest he is an aficionado of Russia's "rule of the grandfathers" military hazing culture, which centers on corruption and brutality.
Again, however, Putin's big problem is that his Ukraine war faces three challenges nearly impossible to resolve.
First, there's the Russian military's woeful battlefield leadership/command and control. Recent Ukrainian offensives have shown that Russian forces lack the ability even to conduct coordinated retreats. This has opened Russian lines to rapid dissection. Second, there's the Russian military's material-drained and highly vulnerable logistics train. Russian munition stocks are running short, and Ukrainian forces keep hitting Russian supply depots. As an extension, Putin faces his third great challenge: collapsing morale across many different units and, increasingly, the Russian population. Adding to Putin's woes is the fact that Ukraine's capability is only growing as his own declines in tandem.
Top line: This reality will force Putin to choose between nuclear escalation in an attempt to force a resolution on his terms and a general retreat.
There's one final factor to consider.
As with the grooming of officials such as the FSB security service's Sergey Korolyov, Putin may be readying Surovikin to join a new generation of Russian security chiefs. Considering the rising influence of ultra-hawks within the Kremlin and the declining influence of figures such as SVR foreign intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin, who was flying high until this year, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, Surovikin is a contender for higher office. In turn, his appointment may represent a broader shift toward a more hawkish Russian foreign policy beyond any Ukraine-specific considerations.
Regardless, Putin's war effort remains in very deep trouble.
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