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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Joe Antol who wrote (20093)2/11/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: Don Earl  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
Hi Joe,

I sort of think that a lot of what's going on now in the techs is a giant bear trap that was set up all through December. Short money was going down hot and heavy all over the place. Then all of a sudden Reuters declared the crisis to be over and a whole bunch of folks got caught out where they didn't belong and were forced to start covering at a loss. I don't know if that's good or bad in the long run. A lot of times it looks to me as if the most heavily shorted stocks produce the best trading gains when the tide turns. When the bears panic, they panic real good. I'm starting to wonder what's going to happen to the market if all the short money gets shaken loose and there aren't any bear profits to hold it up if another "crisis" hits. The dow going into record territory a month after the world was going to come to an end makes me more than a little bit nervous.

Hard saying what NOVL will do come earnings. I recall seeing an article last summer that suggested that a lot of companies were holding off network purchases until the end of the year. Maybe this time it will be different. I'm getting to the point where holding any companies stock through earnings is starting to feel like a coin toss variety of gambling. IMO, for Novell it's the gross sales that will tell the tale more than EPS.

Has anyone talked to IR lately? I wonder what sentiment is like in that department these days.

Regards,

Don
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