| | | I partially agree. Interest rates are a blunt instrument. They have reloaded their bullets and are now at a good neutral area so should stop. However I do think they should continue and maybe even accelerate QT. You can't double the money supply and then act shocked that the price of everything went up, foreign currencies went down etc. If you give everyone within our borders extra money, they will buy stuff from other countries basically getting real goods for half price. This short changes the foreign country and benefits those here in the US who got everything on sale for half off. Of course they go on a buying spree because they can buy everything with their new fat bank account so prices climb.
Drain the extra money and the buying will slow down without affecting the borrowing for production as much as raising interest rates. Raising rates is going to curb production which will further limit supply.
FWIW - We should rally now. I know Max Pain is higher but I see a dollar pushing over 113, Bonds dropping with rates rising to new highs and I just couldn't take the pain anymore. I was hedged and made money on the SPXS but I had a lot of slippage, especially this morning when I was doing my reading and had sold some of my hedge when we were at a 7 day trendline that we bounced on but then crashed through while I was reading a long article, When we went through that trendline, that was the last straw for me. Anyway, I'm flat again and the hit was massive. It will take me weeks to make it back and that assumes I can get my mojo back that seems to have left me recently.
As for someone asking about looking at trades. I do that each December. I did take a peak at mine a while back and I have an enormous great track record on winners vs losers. I probably bat over 80-90% easy, likely better. The problem is my wins are usually small and my losses big. It's easy to say let your winners run and cut your losses quick but at least with my style of trading, the losers tend to tank very fast but often bounce back thus turning back into small scalp wins. The winners only go up a short time before rolling over. Holding longer would turn them into losers. I just ran my October so far, I'm at 75% winners and that is with me trading VERY bad the last few days. I'm in a slump. However, I am now down for the month with this big hit I just took whereas I was up pretty good up as of yesterday morning. And no certain person (Not you Q), I don't want to be talked down to like a child with advise I already know but don't do. I know my fault and what I am doing wrong, I just struggle with it. |
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