PK, you are the master of "Quantitative Kurlakology", but here are some random thoughts from a fellow Kurlakologist...
The TKSMA (three-tout simple moving average) is definitely showing weakness:
+11.73 close-to-next day high (TK, bull phase, series ending 8/5)
v.
-5.43 bearish close-to-next day low (TK, bear phase, series ending today)
The maximum close to next day H/L has occured when he has reached "the turn in the road":
18.0% Aug. '96; -17.6 Aug. '97
And if you look at the TKSMA back when he was is bull phase, the 3-tout average was declining all the way up until "best of all hoped scenarios" day.
+13.83 (3-tout series ending 3/5)
+11.76 ( " 5/27)
+ 8.43 ( " 6/25)
So, even on the way up he loses his short-term punch. The schock value wears off.
MU was showing green on my screen. Guess that means TK didn't take the hill today.
Late-Elvis trend - CONFIRMED
Still think Kurlak could always try and follow in the footsteps of "Roxy the Flying Squirrel" and Hans "Toutman", and get his chief market strategist to bail him out, although something tells me Chuck Clough isn't quite in the same tier as Miss Bull Market and the Raging Bull.
It's the brokerage firm version of the WWF:
Cohen/Goldman and Acampora/Pru
v.
TK/Merril and Milton/BBH.
The undercard features a battle between the California minor-leaguers - Niles/RS v. Joseph/Monty (with guest appearance by Business Week's Gene Marcial, who currently is the answer to the question "Who's the biggest joke in financial journalism today?")
And again, it's about as flat-out funny as you can get - this time what the guy's saying is right and this time everyone seems to be blowing off his calls.
Guess there's something to be said for going to the hyperbole well one too many times <g>
Good trading,
Tom |
