Kirk's Market Thoughts Message Board

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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

COHR 134.64

+4.6%

Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (14700)	10/25/2022 12:23:25 PM
From: robert b furman	2 Recommendations Recommended By da_spot sixty2nds Read Replies (2) of 26422

Hi Kirk, I am bulled up. Yesterday the 35 EMA CLX has finally gone positive after many weeks below zero. That should be a leading indicator to the 30 day SMA CLX going positive next. Clx studies for many years have noted that when a 30 sma CLX comes from under zero to above zero, the market often accelerates. Many, if not most are out of this market (especially if they have a guru to listen to). <smile> I like how the SMH has acted here and the Financials and Health Care have been one to two days ahead of SMH's nice reversal. Later this week we'll get the oils and starting today he have TER - AH, KLAC tomorrow with INTC the next day (27th)y next week AMKR, and next month COHR with AMAT coming in its usual late reporting on 17th November - tentatively. There will be of course discussion about China's lost business (for leading edge tool makers). That is probably a push out and will be made up with new fabs and/or expansions within the US and S. Korea/Europe. I'm thinking any new builds from TSM may well be US bound from here on as well. XI must have his eye on Taiwan now that they've been put in restriction for advanced chips That's scary stuff! Pearl harbor was the result of us cutting off oil to Japan! Leading edge for INTC was always in the US. An embargo on Taiwan would kill Foxcon and AAPL. There has to be a tsunami of fabs being planned in the US or Asia! At least so far as leading edge Capex is concerned. with steady good business. Higher prices, higher backlogs, higher guidance sound pretty good to me. Fangs got crazy on hiring - they need to cull the lesser than brilliant players out there. This market is going to be good for stock pickers. Some inventory channels stuffed - mostly retail. Look for solid balance sheets and dividend payers. Now more than ever before semi equipment builders fit that model. Bob

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