Hurricane season isn’t over yet. Here are three new systems to watch.
Matthew Cappucci - 1h ago
The Washington Post
Atlantic hurricane season historically peaks in September, but October can be a sneakily perilous month. Despite a quiet few weeks since the demise of Ian in late September, the season is far from over — and meteorologists are tracking three disturbances with varying potential for development.
Hurricane season isn’t over yet. Here are three new systems to watch.
One is near Bermuda and flirted with becoming a brief tropical depression. Another is centered well to its south, and a third — perhaps the most intriguing at this point — could enter the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
Maryland to build weather station network to improve forecastsThe season to date has featured 11 named storms, including five hurricanes. Despite the flurry of storminess, the season has technically been below average for activity. That is according to a metric called ACE, or Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which is meant to quantify how much cumulative energy storms expend on their strong winds.
At present, the season has racked up 84.1 ACE units, meaning we’re still about 25 percent below what is average. Roughly half of this season’s ACE was churned through by just two storms — Ian and Fiona — which both spent time as Category 4 hurricanes roaming the ocean basin.
Officially, hurricane season does not end until Nov. 30, and the trio of systems discussed below exemplifies why it is too early to stop monitoring the tropical Atlantic.
System No. 1: Swirl near Bermuda
Hurricane season isn’t over yet. Here are three new systems to watch.© Provided by The Washington Post
The first area to watch is a small swirl of clouds just north-northwest of Bermuda. Initially, it sprouted a couple of showers and thunderstorms, but most have disintegrated. It was once believed that any showers and thunderstorms that formed near its center would vertically stretch the axis of near-surface spin and allow a tropical depression to brew. Now, however, disruptive wind shear, or a change of wind speed and/or direction with height, is working against it.
In the case of a mature hurricane, wind shear can play a game of atmospheric tug of war that knocks a storm off-kilter. For a storm still working to develop, wind shear is like aiming a leaf blower at a spinning top.
As such, the Bermuda swirl is unlikely to become better organized. The island may experience an isolated shower or some breezy winds Tuesday, but otherwise, the system is working north-northwest and is likely to be shredded by strengthening upper-level winds in the next day or two.
System No. 2: Southwestern Atlantic
Notice the American GFS model's simulation of a developing low pressure center southwest of Bermuda. (WeatherBell)
A low-pressure system is expected to form midway between Hispaniola and Bermuda sometime Thursday or Friday. Initially, it should be just a broad, open wave of low pressure with a scattering of thunderstorms embedded within it, but it could consolidate. If that does happen, it probably would occur near or west of Bermuda before the system swings east after getting caught up in the path of an approaching cold front. The key time frame to watch would be Saturday through Monday.
The National Hurricane Center estimates a 30 percent chance of eventual development.
System No. 3: Eastern Caribbean
The American GFS model simulates a wide range of possibilities, several of which indicate the formation of low pressure in the eastern Caribbean this weekend. (WeatherBell)
This system — a disorganized group of showers and thunderstorms about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands — is potentially of greatest concern, but whether a threat will materialize is uncertain.
Some weather models hint that some of the showers and storms will skim along the northeastern coast of South America before emerging in the extreme southeastern Caribbean. If they do so, they would encounter an environment favorable for intensification, with gentle upper-level winds and exceptionally warm ocean waters. However, other models suggest the thunderstorms are more likely to move over land in northern South America — where they would not be able to organize themselves into something more potent.
The National Hurricane Center estimates a 20 percent chance of development in the next five days, but that chance could grow. The system will not even move into the southeastern Caribbean until the late-Thursday or early-Friday time frame. |
