Some years ago I communicated with a cycle analyst, who really did some good work.
He used to have a blog, disappeared, think he is now gone.
One thing I remember is that someone complimented him on his bond work. He replied thanks, and at the time I think we are in no man's land. Not sure of the future. Maybe an ultimate big bond top about 2040. His words.
IF we have a global melt up into the end of this decade, then a big crash, the cycle analyst date for a top in bonds will not be far off.
Then the long wave ends, the interest rate climb begins in earnest, does not look back for a long time, and we will surpass (after most of us are gone) Volker's rates. CD's to the moon. The long wave turns into the long wave up.
The US of A will survive. We will survive.
I remember the Volker days, was young with family, trying to buy a house, was lucky. Got in, I thot 8 % was the cat's meow. We survived.
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