| | | Jim,
I just reviewed the FY21/FY24 forecast disclosed during the Nov. 16, 2021 Investor Day.
From page 27 of the transcript, Akash seems to be referring to the iPhone issued in 2023 from Apple's perspective when he says below, "So, you could have higher share, but the forecast that I'm giving you today is based on a 20% share of iPhone 2023."
Since Q doesn't do full year guidance anymore, the analysts will need to incorporate your Q4 analysis into their FY 2023 earnings estimates ending 9/30/23 and the 1st 3 quarters of FY 2024.
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With that, I'm transitioning now to the forecast for handsets. So, over the next three years, we expect a SAM CAGR of 12% in handsets. This is between 2021 and 2024. The drivers for this are the same as the ones you've seen before, which is you have 4G to 5G and you have increased Snapdragon content.
Our forecast for revenue is that it will grow at least in line with total SAM. And the assumption we use for this forecast is that for Apple 2023 launch, our share is down to 20%. This is a planning assumption for the forecast purposes.
Just to be clear, there is no new data point that makes us do this forecast versus our discussions in the past. We just wanted to set a base for this forecast. And so, we've used that as a planning assumption. Let me step back and make sure you understand our leadership in 5G as we talk about this assumption. We started early investing in 5G. We are clearly the leader. If you want to launch a global phone, we're going to have the best modem. And we're going to be significantly ahead as we go from Release 16, 17, 18 that Jim talked about.
So, we're going to offer that product to all of our customers. So, you could have higher share, but the forecast that I'm giving you today is based on a 20% share of iPhone 2023. Anything better than that would be upside. If you look at just Android revenue, we expect that to grow significantly faster than SAM. |
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