IMHO there are some warnings in this report:
1) Lisa didn't very directly deal with questions about the differential between Intel and AMD on client, and she hedged quite a bit about when there will be recovery there. To the degree she did address it, she allowed that Intel was competing on price in some segments, and AMD wasn't going to play that game. If AMD really needs to flush $1B in inventory out of the PC supply chain in both Q3 and Q4, then how come Intel actually increased sales in client in Q3, and will likely be about flat in Q4? Are the OEMs stuffing Intel chips into inventory? Why doesn't the Intel side need to flush a similar % of inventory as the AMD side in the supply chain? The Intel side should be flushing $3B/qtr if it was at all similar to the AMD side.
2) Gaming is flat for all of 23, and its down in the current qtr. So they aren't expecting much from the RDNA3 launch this qtr, at least it can't offset console seasonal Q4, and for a full year out, this segment is no growth. This was the 2nd largest segment, and has had great growth (although almost all the growth has been console).
3) Multiple statements from both Lisa and Devinder saying that Data Center, Embedded, and "commercial" were the growth drivers for AMD's future, that they would target those segments for op ex investments, and would tighten spending in the other segments.
4) Their formerly largest segment, Client compute has fallen in half, will remain that way in Q4, and they didn't articulate any clear message for why it will return to the former highs and how long that will take. There is a very serious problem her with Intel newly competitive, and yet it should be very clear that AMD relies on both Data Center and Client using the same silicon and same design op ex. If they become uncompetitive in one half, it will impact the other half as well over time.
5) In Data Center, they have almost no GPU traction it appears other than the SC wins. That isn't much. Then Lisa also made the astonishing admission that Enterprise is actually down YoY! Ouch, they can't seem to get any traction there. So their big success is Cloud, and she admits that is the lower margin side of Data Center. |
