Tropics Watch: Development likely for area heading toward Florida’s east coast
Invest 98L already causing dangerous beach, boating conditions
We are keeping a close eye on a developing late-season area in the Tropics that could become a subtropical or tropical storm in the next couple of days.
The video at the top of this story was recorded ahead of the National Hurricane Center's 1 p.m. update.
ORLANDO, Fla. – We are keeping a close eye on a developing late-season area in the Tropics that could become a subtropical or tropical storm in the next couple of days. As it lifts from the Caribbean, models are coming to better agreement that it will bring significant impacts to east Central Florida by midweek.
Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center designated this system as Invest 98L. This means it will now be investigated by hurricane hunters over the next few days, and computer models will be generated that focus on this one area
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As of 1 p.m. Sunday, the NHC gave Invest 98L an 80% chance of tropical development in the next two days, 90% in the next five.
Based on the latest models, even with a possible subtropical or tropical low sitting over 400 miles from Florida, conditions will be felt as early as Monday with beach and marine conditions already considered very dangerous.
The following spaghetti models were established by 3 p.m. at the NHC:
Computer models: Invest 98L - 3 p.m. Sunday (Copyright 2022 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)Invest 98L could be at or near hurricane strength before it approaches the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the NHC.
Expect life-threatening rip currents, choppy surf and large breaking waves to continue, in addition to a growing concern for beach erosion around the times of high tide.
Coastal hazards. (Copyright 2022 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)By Tuesday, we could see wind gusts up to 30 mph inland and up to 40 mph along the coast. Worsening conditions continue with seas forecast to reach 9-13 feet nearshore.
Local impacts. (Copyright 2022 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)As Invest 98L tracks north near the Bahamas, it will begin to interact with a large ridge, quickly steering it west-southwestward Tuesday afternoon. After this point, models begin to differ on the path of the low.
By Wednesday, a strong subtropical or tropical system will be picking up speed and some intensity as it moves southwestward toward the northern Bahamas. Models suggest tropical moisture arriving as early as Wednesday afternoon. The EURO model guidance is faster taking a more southward trajectory, where the GFS brings a slower storm across Central Florida and into the Panhandle. The slowest model is the Canadian, showing the system approaching by Thursday afternoon.
With that being said, and with many communities still dealing with impacts from Hurricane Ian, we should not take this system lightly. Depending on the low’s strengths and track, impacts with rainfall and flooding could be a big concern.
Comparing models. (Copyright 2022 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)The National Hurricane Center is also highlighting another area in the Tropics near Bermuda. It has a 70% chance of developing to a short-lived storm later Sunday.
Tropical development 1 p.m. (Copyright 2022 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)The next two names on the 2022 Hurricane List are Nicole and Owen.
See our previous coverage of this story in the media player below.
We are keeping a close eye on a developing late season area in the Tropics that could become a subtropical or tropical storm in the next couple of days. As it lifts from the Caribbean, models are becoming in better agreement that it will bring significant impacts to east Central Florida by midweek.
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