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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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skinowski
To: skinowski who wrote (771083)11/7/2022 5:52:08 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation   of 793866
 
I don't think it will happen by the end of November either unless either

1 - Russia decides that the position isn't tenable and pulls back deliberately to preserve as much of their forces as they can and to shorten their lines in the south (at the expense of shortening Ukraine's lines as well, basically that area would be more stable and the fight would probably move elsewhere).

or

2 - Ukraine overemphasis the attack in that area compared to attacking or defending elsewhere (possibly causing problems in those areas) and does so super-aggressively (taking a ton of casualties in the process).

The supply situation for the Russians can't be great on that side of the river and I could see Ukraine taking it at some point, but I don't see eminent collapse, and the force density here is higher than it was in Kharkiv Oblast so I don't think you can just push through one line and force the Russians to retreat.
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