DRL:
And now, finally, some personal comments....
CGO does appear to be taking off again. I don't think I've read a more optimistic press release since I've been investing...
Looks like good news on all fronts:
1. Asia - flu? What flu? says CGO.
2. FED EX - Finally returned, headache gone.
3. Boeing - Hey, maybe we actually will get CGO it's planes on time.
4. Pilots - Union? We don't need no stinkin' union!
5. Chowdry back at the helm - Personally I like him leading CGO. They floundered while he was gone (maybe not totally due to the fact that he wasn't CEO, but it's still good to see him back.)
6. CGO has so much business it can't get additional planes fast enough - now that's always a good sign!
7. Tons of debt, but at least they took advantage of the great interest rates.
Of the 15 747-400 on order from Boeing, CGO accounts for 10 of them. Now that's amazing.
I still like Atlas Air for the same reasons I bought it almost two years ago. Great management, great niche market, great industry, and no 'real' competition from an all cargo company. Atlas Air is the 3rd largest Air cargo company in the world behind Fed Ex and UPS. But UPS and Fed Ex operate totally differently than Atlas. Atlas says to its customers - you pay us this amount for this length of time. We don't care if you want us to send 1 shoe or 10,000 shoes, the price is the same. And by the way, customer, you have to pay for gas, cargo handling, airport fees - we'll just fly the plane.
A competitor just can't decide to start flying cargo and buy 10 airplanes and start going. Atlas has a huge jump on anyone trying to enter the market, and in my opinion is an industry leader...
Let's take some stock price guesses:
Last July, I predicted that CGO would hover between $20 and $30, for the rest of the year,and, miraculously, I was actually right.
So now I'll try to predict where CGO goes from here - I think we will get over $30 fairly soon - days, weeks, or maybe a month. But I do not think CGO will fly out of control like it did last year (I rode this thing all the way up to $60+, and all the way back down to $20.)
So for the rest of the year, if earnings go as planned, which I think they will, CGO should hopefully see the $40 level. With earnings estimates around $2.00 this year, that gives CGO a P/E of 20.
Bought some more shares this morning at $24.50, hope you were as lucky!
What are your opinions on CGO???
Good luck!
Eric B. |
