ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (73761)	11/15/2022 1:31:51 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	5 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 Lee Lichterman III Mevis skier31 towerdog Read Replies (1) of 97576

thinking about QQQ shorting: schrts.co The 17% March rally failed just below the 50dma+10% line. The 25% July-August rally failed a bit above that line. From the October lows: +17% = 297 +25% = 317 50dma+10% now at 306 August high = 334 I am assuming, we are still in a bear market, so this rally will fail. If I am wrong, I will lose a lot of money. But…unlike previous rallies, this one is not entirely based on wishful thinking. Inflation really does look like it has peaked. The Fed is finished with 75bp hikes. We can keep hoping corporate profits will not fall off a cliff. That hope will die next earnings season, but there is plenty of time left to extend this rally. Possible bullish events: 1. Ukraine frontline stabilizes; traders quit worrying about it. Putin stops talking about nuking Kiev. 2. China re-opening. Copper and China stocks seem to think this will happen. 3. US$ falls. This will reduce the risk of several nasty events, like a cascade of EM sovereign defaults. Considering using QQQ puts, December 2023 $290 strike. No position yet.

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