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So much depends on investor expectations with this stock. One can argue that the stock is fairly priced here, given a 35 PE and 25% expected growth over the next few years. I can see that some might argue it's undervalued, given the amazing growth we've seen in the last few months. If you extrapolate that growth into future projections, then indeed AEIS should be in mid 30's. But given that most analysts estimate flat quarterly growth thru all of 1998, the stock might stagnate here. Great earnings don't necessarily translate into increased estimates. I'm really impressed by the growth in revs, the fundamental business plan, market share. Yet, with AMAT warning yesterday, isn't the writing already on the wall? AMAT said there's a glut right now in the chip equip market, and this has to mean future disappointment for AEIS at some point this year. That's why I'll be looking to establish my short into the gap up early tomorrow morn. Looking to cover at the recent low. What I'm wondering about, however, is: were investors expecting a blowout quarter like the last two (which would kill my hoped for gap-up) or were they expecting a miss because of Asia and therefore being very cautious? Tomorrow will tell. I'd like to hear from others on their expectations. |
