I think we'll move sooner rather than later. Still looking for 45 by mid April.
FWIW, I have entered all of WinStar's markets, populations, and licenses into a spread sheet, planning on valueing them based on the LMDS auction. Just playing around, I broke the markets into 3 groups like the LMDS auction has; less than 100,000; 100,000 to 1,000,000; and greater than 1,000,000. I then just guessed some channel pop values; first shot used 50 cents for the less than 100,000, $1.00 for the 100,000 to 1,000,000, and $1.50 for the greater than 1,000,000. This gives a valuation of WinStar's licenses of $1.2 billion. I then upped the value for the greater than 1,000,000 to $2.00 per channel pop and get a value of $1.55 billion. I think these values will be in the ball park, and maybe a little conservative if anything. A value of $2.50 for the largest markets, as we've talked about for years, gives a license value of $1.9 billion. Granted, the analysis is a little rough at this point, but I think it gives an idea of what we're looking at. |
