A short, and generally quiet, week for the US Market. The NASDAQ Composite up a little less than three quarters of a per cent for the week, and both biotech indices flat, changes of less than a tenth of a percent. Nothing stuck out for individual stocks, either high or low.
The contest portfolios' general performance this week exceeded all three indices, +1.8% (avg) or +0.9% (median). The top performing portfolio for the week was BLADERUNNER, whose +16% gain for the week was a result of their holdings in both FSTX and PRVB.
The top ten portfolios (YTD), showed no change in order from first to seventh place. We welcome back TAMBORELLI to the top ten rankings, absent since the first week of August.
Apologies for the slow update. Still in a mythical tryptophan coma and leftover frenzy from Thanksgiving.
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Report Time Ranges
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From
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To
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Recent
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11/18/2022
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11/25/22
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YTD
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12/31/2021
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Index Performance
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Symbol
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Recent
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YTD
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^IXIC
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0.72%
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-28.24%
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^NBI
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-0.06%
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-10.21%
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^SPSIBI
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0.04%
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-27.52%
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Share Performance
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Recent
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YTD
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Top 5
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Bottom 2nd - 6th
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Top 5
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Bottom 5
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ASLN
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25.209%
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MGTA
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-25.161%
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MACK
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207.67%
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GNCA
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-99.91%
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FSTX
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24.204%
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AMBS
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-24.324%
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BIOA-B.ST
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139.11%
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ATHX
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-97.42%
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OTIC
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22.021%
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AMRS
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-17.117%
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CBIO
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128.85%
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VLON
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-95.82%
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ACHV
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21.757%
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OMER
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-16.279%
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FENC
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116.14%
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PLXP
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-95.63%
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QURE
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21.280%
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VRCI.L
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-13.424%
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PCVX
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84.95%
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PTE
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-95.23%
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Top 10 Portfolio YTD
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YTD(Portfolio - SPSIBI)
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Rec
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Rec(Port. - SPSIBI)
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DIEGOSAN
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0.53%
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28.05%
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-0.319%
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-0.362%
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GENEGURU
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-7.24%
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20.28%
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-3.583%
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-3.626%
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MOPGCW
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-13.30%
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14.22%
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0.235%
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0.193%
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TECHNETIUM
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-17.45%
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10.07%
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-0.663%
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-0.705%
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DEW DILIGENCE
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-22.54%
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4.98%
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-1.803%
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-1.846%
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BRENDAN_49
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-24.29%
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3.23%
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1.679%
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1.636%
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BIOSCIENTISTSA
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-25.72%
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1.80%
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-0.028%
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-0.070%
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HORSEINALFALFA
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-26.39%
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1.13%
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2.674%
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2.631%
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A.J. MULLEN
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-27.04%
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0.48%
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-0.709%
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-0.752%
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TAMBORELLI
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-27.22%
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0.30%
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2.085%
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2.042%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Avg Recent
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Avg YTD
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Median Recent
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Median YTD
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$867
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-35.49%
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THEHAMMER
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$410
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RAJU_BIJLEE
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-36.15%
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1.79%
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THEHAMMER
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0.912%
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As promised here are suggested rules for the 2023 Edition of the Biotech Values Charity Stock Picking Contest.
Comments and discussion of the contest, rules, and administration should be addressed to the message board.
1. We’re all here to have fun. The contest is for entertainment purposes only. The operation of the contest as described by the rules is performed on a best effort basis by the administrator. Don’t shoot the piano player, we’re peddling as fast as we can.
2. All financial information is based on values downloaded from Yahoo FInance or derived from the Yahoo Finance public web service. The precision of the inputs is as reported, i.e. prices may be given to the nearest cent or to a higher or lower number of digits past the decimal point.
3. All calculations are performed on a spread sheet without any intermediate rounding, e.g. nominal tracking of a portfolio’s number of shares in a stock with 14 figure “accuracy”. All input values and the algorithm’s used are archived and available for inspection on request.
4. Prior to the start of the contest, a contestant creates a “$100,000 fantasy portfolio”, only one portfolio per contestant.
A. The portfolio is by default identified using the contestant’s board “handle”, though the contestant may request an alias identifier, obviously one not already in use on the board or “spoofs” any identifiable real name or handle of a real person or entity.
B. The portfolio consist of publicly traded biotech stocks
i. These should be the ordinary class of shares as traded under a particular stock symbol, as used by Yahoo Finance.
ii. No options, or short holdings.
iii. Issues on foreign exchanges must include the appropriate suffix (.e.g “.HK”, “.SW”, etc.).
a. Downloaded prices are converted to US$ using the appropriate exchange rate as reported in Yahoo Finance with the appropriate ticker symbol, e.g. EURUSD=X for all exchanges that trade in Euros.
iv. Each company should primarily do business in the biotech sector, though this determination is by the honor system. (The winning strategy for 2022 might very well be a portfolio consisting of US Treasury debt, but what’s the fun in that?)
D. At its creation, the portfolio mush have at least 8 stocks, and no more than 12.
E. Each stock is given a fractional allocation of the initial $100,000.00.
i. The minimum allocation of a stock is 5%.
ii. The total allocation for all stocks must sum up to 100%.
F. The choices for a portfolio are communicated via email or private message to the administrator.
i. It will help if the text of the message includes of individual lines for each choice, giving the symbol, a comma separator, and the allocation (either as a fractional number of a percentage), e.g. “MACK,20%”.
ii. The contestant may modify and update the portfolio before finalization for any reason, including corrections of typos.
iii. Finalization of the portfolio must be before midnight, Dec 31, 2022.
iv. After that time, any errors in the finalized portfolio may be corrected by the administrator:
a. misspelled symbols without some other unambiguous indication for the intended company, will be dropped.
b, duplicated symbols will be consolidated into a single position.
c. if more than 14 have been chosen the excess will be removed starting with the smallest positions, ties to be determined randomly.
d. if the total allocation is not 100% it will be renormalized to 100%.
e. Any entries less than 5% allocations will be increased to 5%, and the other entries reduced accordingly to keep the total 100%.
f. if only seven identifiable selections have been received, a 7% allocation will be made to the S&P Biotech Index, (^SPSIBI), and the other allocations reduced by 1% each.
G. The allocated share of $100k is used to purchase shares using the closing price of the last trading day of 2022.
5. Portfolio changes during the contest:
A. A change in a stock symbol is handled transparently, and applied also to the records for earlier events.
B. Stock splits and reverse splits are applied when recognized in the Yahoo Finance download, and are propagated back to earlier transactions, e.g. the record for the initial purchase of a stock will by adjusted by increasing/decreasing the price and number of shares to match the effects of the split.
C. If it is noticed that cash has been generated by a stock due to a return of capital (dividend), then that cash is reinvested in that particular stock, adding to the number of shares in a portfolio using the opening price ex dividend. There is no guarantee that the administrator will catch any particular event, and notification of such by the contestants is appreciated.
D. During the contest a particular company or stock might cease to exist, at least as far as Yahoo Finance is concerned. In that case, for each portfolio that has a position in that stock:
i. Convert the shares to a cash value:
a. If the stock has been delisted, the cash value is the portfolios number of shares times the price of its last recorded sale.
b. Add any cash returned to a share holder as a result of an acquisition offer.
c. If the offer includes swapping the acquired shares for shares in the acquire, all of these new shares are sold using its opening price of the day the acquisition is completed.
d. Other compensations offered, e.g. warrants and options, unvested and deferred compensation, are ignored unless it is publicly traded and covered by Yahoo Finance that gives a price on the day of acquisition completion.
ii. The current portfolio allocation of the missing stock is set to zero. The remaining stocks in the portfolio have their allocations renormalized by multiplying by a number such that the new total allocation is 100%.
iii. Any cash then is used to purchase additional shares in the remaining portfolio choices using the new allocation fraction and the closing prices of the day of acquisition completion.
6. At the end of the year, each portfolio is cashed out using the closing price for the last day of trading of 2023. The submitter of the highest value portfolio is declared the winner, and is welcome to share the wisdom (or luck) behind their picks. They also welcome to name their favorite charity, which other participants are encouraged to note. Although there is no requirement to make any contribution to that, or any other charity that they might prefer, it does say “Charity” in the name of the contest.
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Almost all of the above qualifies as “same as it ever was”, with some minor tweaks to recognize some last minute fixes to portfolios at the start of the contest.
Also added is rule 5.C. This year one stock had a significant Return of Capital (an extraordinary dividend) which amounted to a significant outlay for that position, though as in years previous this cash was not added to the value of the portfolio or otherwise noted. Only a single contestant had chosen the stock in question, and ignoring the event had no significant difference in the relative rankings of the portfolio. This event is very rare in that biotech companies hardly ever issue dividends, extraordinary or regular, so far these events have been ignored. In addition, just inspecting the data contained in the Yahoo Finance download does not indicate that such an event has taken place, and its a lot to ask the administrator to track this possibility for almost 200 different stocks each week. But if someone learns of such an event, and notifies the contest administrator, it makes sense to recognizing the event by reinvesting any proceeds in that stock using its current price. The administrator is already grateful to all the contestants for the alerts to recent or upcoming acquisitions that otherwise might not be noted until after Yahoo Finance gets around to stop reporting on the acquired firm. |
