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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation
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To: SMALL FRY who wrote (9734)2/12/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (2) of 25814
 
SF: Yeah those high R&D costs can eat EPS that's for sure.

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On another topic about the cycles of the industry and something
to which I alluded a few posts ago:

Check out an old post of mine. Number 4510.

With 1998 at single digits growth, that makes the years:

1996, 1997, 1998 worse than the period 1989,1990,1991 which was
probably the darkest period in the industry!

(See Kurlak was right!!! Without DRAM the overall rate suffers.)

(a) this just blows my mind.
(b) Just as the early 90's were followed by the years 1993-1995 of
quadruples and then some in stock prices, my guess (hope) is that we
get a similar BOOM in the years 1999-2002:

BUST 1989 - 1992
BOOM 1993 - 1995
BUST 1996 - 1998
BOOM 1999 - 2002+ (maybe 2000 - 2002+?)

(And yet another reason why I doubt the equip-makers are going to
have a fine year as the stock prices are dictating! Need to work off
the excess capacity and that will mean postponing cap. exp. This in
turn means capacity might match demand later on which means ASPs for
semiconcductors goes up which means semis are making fistfulls of
money and shareholders can enjoy early retirements.)

So I would guess it would be wise to start loading the guns sometime
this summer or so.

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The next question is who will be the big winner and what to pick:

(a) Pick the biggest
(b) Pick the smallest
(c) Pick the index
(d) Pick a new technology company and hope it does not bomb

this one's trickier!

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