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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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ajtj99
Bocor
To: towerdog who wrote (74278)11/30/2022 3:34:29 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 97910
 
Like I said in my tweet, I think it's mostly short covering and trend following CTAs driving this up. Bond rates and dollar are crashing as they are correctly reading we are going to go into a more serious recession than originally thought with Powell's comments. If he is going to slow the economy until service job pressure eases, we are going to have to slow waaay down.
We also still have all the same issues. Even if Biden outlaws a rail strike, they can still do a slowdown. Every engine will suddenly be broken, cargo loaded slowly etc.
China is still locking down. Winter is just starting and only 28% of people care about Covid. I figure we're in for a big spike a few months from now.
Housing is in the dumps so all the appliances and stuff that go with it will screech to a halt.
Trade balance back in deficit since oil prices receded as that was our main money maker.
There is the possibility like I said a while back we rally until the recession hits hard but I doubt we can go too high with the Fed's QT. Who knows, this market has a track record for irrational exuberance.
I collected a year of 7-8% dividends so I'm just happy to be getting flat until I figure out a new strategy for next year.
Depending on how bad and broad the recession is, especially if global, I'm wondering about defense. Missiles are expensive.
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