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Volcano Eruptions On the Rise with Solar Minimum
We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025. Solar Cycle 24 which ended in December 2019, was of average in length, at 11 years. However, it was the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755. We’re now in Solar Cycle 25 and we are still in Solar Minimum conditions at this time. Solar Maximum is predicted to occur midway through this cycle which may come as soon as November 2024 but no later than March 2026, with this ideal peak reaching most likely by July 2025.
Right now, the solar wave is conforming more to our model than that of NASA. The Sun has become far more active than NASA has forecast or expected. NASA is beginning to worry that this Solar Cycle 25 could become the Strongest Cycle Since Records Began. Effectively, in terms of our model terminology, Solar Cycle 25 may be a Panic Cycle. In other words, we appear to be headed into the strongest cycle on record following the weakest cycle. That is high volatility in cycle terminology.
Almost one year has now passed since the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai volcano erupted (VEI 5). Only now are we starting to realize that this eruption was the biggest volcanic event in human history. They have mapped the 22,000 km(2) area around the Tonga volcano. This has curiously taken place with the weakest solar minimum on record. More significantly, such a major explosion takes about one year before its true impact is understood worldwide.
Mauna Loa, which is the largest volcano in the world covers half the island of Hawaii. It has erupted 33 times since 1843 making this an average cycle of 5.4 years. It tends not to be extremely violent as many others. Hawaii’s Mauna Loa has therefore erupted for the first time in decades but nearby, Kilauea is also erupting and both on the archipelago’s Big Island. Dual eruptions haven’t been seen since 1984.
The last eruption took place in 1984, making this prolonged quiet period the volcano’s longest in recorded history. More interesting, it is near Kilauea which erupted in 2018. The concern is not this volcano by itself. We are looking around the world at increased volcanic activity for the danger is a volcanic winter coming on top of these shortages manufactured by COVID restrictions.
There has been activity which has been detected in Alaska under what has been an 800-year dormant volcano near Sitka known as Mount Edgecumbe. This volcano was believed to have been extinct since it has not been active for at least 800 years. Earthquakes began earlier this year.
Just in August, in Indonesia, the Anak Krakatau Volcano erupted in Seven Explosions within Two Days. It unleashed 1500-Metre-High Scorching Ash.
The undersea Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption of December 2021 into January 14-15, 2022 was a volcanic explosivity equivalent to VEI 5. It was an eruption of a magnitude greater than the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo in The Philippines. According to a news article, the main undersea international fiber-optic communication cable that had been severed in multiple places due to the eruption had been repaired by February 21, 2022, and internet connectivity was restored the following day. The sheer magnitudes of this eruption tends to warn that we may in fact witness a very significant rise in both the frequency of eruptions as well as the magnitude into 2025. The VEI describes the size of explosive volcanic eruptions based on magnitude and intensity. The numerical scale (from 0 to 8) is a logarithmic scale, and is therefore similar to the Richter and other magnitude scales for the size of earthquakes.
The largest eruption of magna took place at Yellowstone at Huckleberry Ridge about 2.1 million years ago. Our cycle models on Yellowstone have turned up and the “ideal” target would be in the year 2100. The difference between a VEI5 and VEI6 is a factor of 10 to 100.
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