| | | From Politico's Nightly newsletter:
Democrats prepare for the Senate map from hell
DEFENSIVE CROUCH — After Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s fate is decided next week in Georgia’s Senate runoff against Republican Herschel Walker, don’t expect a breather. Democrats will almost immediately be back on defense, as the lopsided nature of the 2024 Senate playing field comes into full view.
Democrats are defending roughly two-thirds of the seats up for election in 2024 — 23 of 34 seats — including in a handful of the most competitive states in the nation. Republicans, on the other hand, will be defending seats in some of the reddest and least competitive states — places where Democrats don’t have a prayer of winning.
Worse, at a time when split-ticket voting is on the decline, three Democratic incumbents are seeking reelection in states that former President Donald Trump carried — Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. In contrast, no Republican incumbents are running in states that President Joe Biden won.
Even the Republicans who had the closest races in 2018 — Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — appear to have the wind at their backs in the upcoming election cycle. Both Texas and Florida broke to the right this month, with a red wave cresting across Florida and Texas registering yet another GOP sweep of statewide offices, led by GOP Gov. Greg Abbott’s robust reelection victory.
Add it all up and it’s a grim, unforgiving map for Democrats, one that places the party in a defensive crouch and offers almost no obvious pickup opportunities.
That’s one of the biggest differences from 2022, when Democrats didn’t have to protect any Senate seats in states Trump won in 2020, and had multiple pickup opportunities thanks to retiring Republicans in swing states like Pennsylvania.
But just as in the most recent midterm elections, Trump could again unravel the best laid Republican plans.
On the plus side, a Trump-led ticket would imperil three Democratic incumbents in particular — Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jon Tester of Montana and Joe Manchin of West Virginia — since he carried their states. Yet the former president’s presence on the GOP presidential ticket in 2024 could just as easily boost Democratic prospects elsewhere by juicing Democratic turnout and performance in the big, populous suburbs that have broken hard against him and his brand of politics in three consecutive elections.
Trump’s desire to play kingmaker could also shape the next Senate map in other important ways, whether or not he emerges as the GOP nominee. Democratic incumbents are up for reelection in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all of which rejected flawed, Trump-backed statewide candidates in November. It’s not a stretch to imagine Trump playing a similar role in 2024, boosting similarly unelectable Senate candidates to the GOP nomination in key races, only to see swing state voters reject them once again in the general election.
<snip> |
|
