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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: towerdog who wrote (74347)12/2/2022 8:18:18 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III2 Recommendations

Recommended By
ajtj99
towerdog

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I used to mainly swing trade and only day traded when I had days off or was on night shift. It was also when I was in the city and had broadband so I had 2 computers and 4 screens. One was just a BS screen where I was here on SI, a chatroom and other junk mostly. The others were charts and trade screen.
Now my hotspot barely keeps up with just one screen and I get lag sometimes so I don't do much else. When I'm here on SI, I'm usually on a break and on my phone with the hotspot off and the computer locked. That limitation hurts. My entries are often early so I am in the hole for the first couple minutes so then I'm anxious and trigger happy to take profits too early though most times, I have been nailing the top before it rolls over again so I'm getting about as good as possible until it's a runner. Like I said, I seem to always be in chop. Hold any longer and I'd get nothing or lose. I've tried delaying entry but then I seem to miss the turn so I think my system is right but they are just better at running stops and do it more often than they used to. If you count on them doing it, they don't so you can't bank on it unless you are willing to miss a lot of trades. Maybe average down when they do, which I do sometimes, and you're just risking more if it is a support failure and breakdown.
I'd like to get back to swing trading but I trust this market about as much as Hillary Clinton if I was about to testify against her. All week my scans were telling me to play ALB and DXCM long. DXCM didn't do anything and ALB didn't take off until a day ago which is a late reaction. It also has a tweezer top on the weekly so I passed on both. I also have a signal on COST but it reports next week and I don't gamble on earnings. AA has been a good one but it's a slave to China news, the dollar and for a while, Russia sourced aluminum and LMT rumors. News drivers complicate normal fear/greed prices.
This market is manic. News driving it's mood swings and liquidity driving how big the swings will be. It's just not a swing trade or buy and hold environment IMO.
Right now it has a bullish bias as it's shaking off bad news quickly and liquidity is up. Unfortunately the liquidity numbers have a one day delay for the TGA part.
I think the market is still playing pivot and it's wrong. The Fed is going to slow the raises but do more of them. Even if we get the recession, the Fed isn't going to do QE4. They might cut rates but they aren't going to flood money in to goose things.
Like I say, I'm not a good trader but my macro long term is usually right. The market could rally on hopium and false QE dreams but eventually they will be proven wrong. It has recency bias and can't believe things have changed. Look how they've run NVDA up 4-5 times only to have them and other semis slap them in the face with the reality of the chip slowdowns. I bet they forget and rally it again though. This market is hopelessly bullish on fantasy. It won't end until all that QE money has been drained back out.
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