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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Paul Senior who wrote (71707)12/8/2022 1:11:25 AM
From: Ccube  Read Replies (3) of 78748
 
Got a bid on on ABNB ….had wanted to buy at ipo but seems always over priced.
Also put a bid on EXPE.
Not sure why these stocks are heading lower since earnings should be pretty good with travel.
Although I can see how that could crater if enough people lose jobs.
Revenge travel is real….This year was the busiest summer (tourist).
Record revenue etc because of higher room rates and full occupancy. Although expense did go up too.

Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley is forecasting what I was thinking, that we should hit bottom in 1st half of 2023 …..I think that was similar premise from Drunkenmiller (reading between the lines). Only problem is it seems like too many are in that camp. That rates will peak in early 2023 coincide with market bottom. And off to the races no matter how bad the economy looks. Since fed will pivot if unemployment goes up too much.

Market has me whipsawed … so trying to buy at a discount instead of trying to time it perfectly….my timing has rarely been correct anyway.

Interesting fact is that vix trade is still working. Sell at vix <20 Buy at vix >30…..so we are still in a bear market. Although obviously if it breaks that pattern then we might be in a new bull phase. Or we get capitulation and vix hits 50 > and we get a bull phase. So I’m trying to stay bullish.
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