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Pastimes : Laughter is the Best Medicine - Tell us a joke
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (61669)12/10/2022 4:27:33 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell  Read Replies (1) of 62549
 
I think you are overthinking this. We agree on spinning as that's quite simple math: we die by landing on two of the six chambers, a 33% chance.

You can't possibly have an x/6 chance of dying by not spinning because you only have four possible choices given the other player survived, i.e. did not land on one of the two consecutive bullets. To illustrate:

@ = the empty chamber player #1 landed on. XX designates where the two consecutive bullets are (where I put them is immaterial as the chamber is round). As you can see, there are only four possible scenarios.

@OOOXX = live
O@OOXX = live
OO@OXX = live
OOO@XX = die

You therefore have a 1/4 = 25% chance of dying by not spinning, which is somewhat better than a 33% chance of dying if you were to spin.

BTW, if the bullets are not in adjacent chambers, you are instead slightly better off with a re-spin.

- Jeff
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