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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (74693)12/14/2022 7:25:16 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III1 Recommendation

Recommended By
ajtj99

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You seem to be fixed on this view and making the same mistake that the hopeful pivot crowd and others are making.
The Fed tells everyone in very clear language what they are going to do and then do it. The vague fedspeak and surprises of Greenspan are over.
They have clearly said they are focused on inflation and nothing else
.. period. Everyone that has bet against that theme has lost all year and will continue to lose. They are going to hike and hold until inflation drops. They are going to hike and hold until inflation drops.
They are going to hike and hold until inflation drops............
As for the debt, they can finance it with short term treasuries until inflation comes down, rates drop, and THEN they can go back to issuing longer term bonds. We're only talking a couple years

The alternative is having to risk runaway inflation, the Fed losing credibility, living with higher than optimal inflation etc. Nothing good comes from backing down.
There is no reason the Fed can't hike to the target 5.1%, hold it there as long as inflation starts cooling and then keep the rate above the inflation rate after it drops below the 5% Fed fund rate. They can cut rates as inflation keeps dropping but keep the Fed rate above the inflation rate until they get to the 2% target.

I missed all of today. Temperature got into the 40s so I bought another 25 80lb bags of concrete and got all but 3 poles in
Going to be in the 30s rest of the week so doubt I can do anymore concrete work until it warms back up.
Looks like I missed a good day. Lots of movement.
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