Markets Today: Stock Indexes Tumble As ECB Signals
Even Higher Interest Rates...
Morning Markets
December S&P 500 futures ( ESZ22) this morning are down -1.32%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures ( NQZ22) are down -1.60%.
Stock indexes this morning are moderately lower on negative carry-over from Wednesday when the Fed signaled interest rates would go higher, for longer. Losses in stock indexes accelerated after the ECB raised its inflation estimates and said, “interest rates still have to rise significantly at a steady pace.” This morning’s economic news was mixed for stocks as U.S. Nov retail sales fell more than expected, while weekly jobless claims unexpectedly declined.
Tesla is down more than -2% in pre-market trading and is weighing on technology stocks after CEO Musk sold $3.58 billion of his company’s stock over the past two sessions. Also, Nvidia fell more than -2% after HSBC initiated coverage on the stock with a reduce rating.
A decline in T-note yields is supportive for stocks, with the 10-year T-note yield down -2.8 bp at 3.448%. T-note prices shook off a sharp drop in German bund prices after the ECB raised its inflation forecasts and instead moved higher on this morning’s weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news.
U.S. Nov retail sales fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m and the biggest decline in 11 months. Also, Nov retail sales ex-autos unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the biggest decline in 11 months.
The U.S. Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +5.6 to -13.8, weaker than expectations for a rise to -10.0.
The U.S. Dec Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index fell -15.7 to a 4-month low of -11.2, weaker than expectations of -1.0.
U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -20,000 to an 11-week low of 211,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 232,000.
The Bank of England, as expected, raised its official bank lending rate by +50 bp to a 14-year high of 3.50%.
Overseas stocks today are lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 index is down sharply by -1.76%. European stocks retreated today after the ECB raised its main refinancing rate by +50 bp as expected but said interest rates still need to rise significantly at a steady pace. Stocks extended their losses after the ECB cut its Eurozone 2023 GDP forecast and raised its 2023 inflation forecast. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 3-1/2 week high of 2.05% after the ECB raised its inflation forecast.
The ECB, as expected, raised its main refinancing rate 50 bp to 2.50% and said, "interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target."
The ECB lowered its 2023 Eurozone GDP forecast to +0.5% from a previous estimate of +0.9% and raised its 2023 Eurozone inflation forecast to +6.3% from a previous estimate of +5.5%.
Eurozone Nov new car registrations rose +16.3% y/y to 830,000, the biggest increase in 1-1/2 years.
The German Nov wholesale price index eased to 14.9% y/y from 17.4% y/y in Oct, the slowest pace of increase in 14 months.
China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.25%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Market Index closed down by -0.37%.
The Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-1/2 week low today on weaker-than-expected Chinese industrial production and retail sales reports. Today’s news suggests China's Q4 GDP may be weaker than initially projected and will likely remain subdued into next year. Also, concerns are rising that there will be more disruption to growth as Covid infections surge after the government abruptly dropped its Zero-Covid policy. Losses in the overall market were limited as Chinese chip makers rose on expectations for additional government support for the sector to cope with foreign sanctions.
China Nov industrial production rose +2.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.5% y/y and the smallest increase in 6 months.
China Nov retail sales fell -5.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.0% y/y and the biggest decline in 6 months.
Nov prices for China’s 70-city newly-built commercial residential buildings fell -0.25% m/m, the fifteenth consecutive month that prices have declined.
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index today closed moderately lower on negative carry-over from a slump in U.S equity markets Wednesday after the Fed signaled higher interest rates. However, losses in the overall market were limited by better-than-expected Japanese trade date for November. Also, defense stocks rallied today after the government announced a new tax to fund its 43-trillion-yen ($317 billion) military spending plan.
Japan’s trade data was better than expected as Nov exports rose +20.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +19.7% y/y. Also, Nov imports rose +30.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +26.9% y/y....
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