Thanks for starting my work....
Here is my current take on APM....From a strictly technical standpoint, I would want to see a breakout above 12 1/2 on heavy volume, would want to see it confirmed, and would want it to be backed up by some fundamental reason for the move. I realize that it is right at the 50DMA, and may have crossed it this a.m. But, this stock went down hard on fundamentals, not technicals, IMO, and won't turn around for good until there is some indication of improving fundamentals.
As I recall, APM first said lower revenues in Dec97Q and then they expected up 20% in 98Q1. Then, once Q4 earnings (er, losses) were out, they backed off of the 20% Q over Q improvement expectations. Not exactly encouraging. So, my investment decision (to not invest at this time) is based on my conclusion that there is, at this time, no fundamental reason for this stock to climb -- which is why I asked, "what about the FA?" A lot of people have lost a lot of money in this company -- although I just lost a little, it was still a lesson...
Compared to the group....WDC, SEG, and QNTM charts look a lot alike: the market is willing to bet that they are more likely to recover first - and they probably are. RDRT and APM look a lot alike: still basically bad.
I am willing to invest in APM again - I just don't see any reason to tie my money up there right now....right now, IMO, it is almost as likely to go back to 10 as it is to go to 14....once that risk balance shifts more favorably, I may put some money back in. Until then, I, and most others here, have chosen to bide our time with exchanging ideas about other investment ideas.
Bottom line, I don't think technicals are going to move the stock price sufficiently higher to justify the risk....until APM proves that there is a fundamentally likely profitable future, it is not likely enough to go high enough to justify the downside risk. All in my opinion, of course.
For those already or still in it, I hope it goes to the moon now. If it does and I miss it because I am wrong, I will gladly congratulate those that were right, but I will still not regret not betting on what I don't think is as likely to be profitable as wherever else I put my money...I only moan about real losses, not missed gains.
Thanks for making me think about it more closely though.....
Troy |
