Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 299.81

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4:00 PM EST

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (89412)	12/19/2022 6:33:08 PM
From: Sam	2 Recommendations Recommended By Return to Sender Sun Tzu Read Replies (1) of 95611

I don't know. I haven't always been right about Micron but I've generally been reasonably sure about what might happen (even though my "certainty" was at times later dashed, lol!). This time, I can't even convince myself that I have a clue. Currently it isn't even in the top three of my holdings--I sold a fair bit last week and have been a seller since early in the summer. At some point it might be a strong buy again, but I fear all the cash from various countries to build fab capacity might just lead to another over-building like what happened in the first decade of the 21st century. There are reasons why it could do so and reasons why it might not. The sector is much larger than ever and new applications are coming online all the time. There will be still more enormous sources of demand over the next decade or more and a great deal of new capacity will be required. But timing the new capacity and the new demand could be tricky. W/r/t Micron specifically, what it has in its favor is that state-of-the-art DRAM in particular is extremely difficult to make. It is as much art as it is science. Even Samsung has had difficulty at the latest nodes. But I don't think that will help it in the short term. Clearly the only new vendor in DRAM will be the Chinese and for now they are blocked from even trying to learn how to produce DRAM at lower than 18nm nodes. At least, officially. They have never shown any compunction about violating patents and stealing employees and trade secrets, so I have no doubt that if they can procure purloined equipment, they will do so. But they would also have to know how to actually use the equipment and get additional tools for actual production, so that will be very difficult for them to do. I've bought more JKS recently in part because their CEO just bought a couple of million shares on the open market and it feels to me like it is ready to make a big move. So that is my biggest position. And I have a position in Tower as a play on Intel's takeover. But I've owned that since it was in the teens years ago, recently bought some more around 43-44 thinking that Intel will find a way to make the takeover happen. If it doesn't happen, I will be unhappy. How about you? What are your thoughts at Micron and the semis generally? Any favorites?

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