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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Sam who wrote (89422)12/19/2022 6:50:53 PM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation

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I am taking a stepwise approach to SOX. I think it is headed to 2400ish. Then I will know if it will revisit the lows and/or possibly make a new low (Blue line, then 2300, then the green line).

I am more positive on semicaps and specialty chips than generic ones like MU. I am not that positive on INTC and AMD either, though I am more willing to buy INTC than AMD. I bought a boatload of INTC as it fell in increasingly larger numbers. I closed it out about a week ago. I think INTC in low 20s should be a buy. But in general I don't like to fight the tape.

The main balancing act is going to be between chip demand and export sanctions on China. I don't have the data as to how much of the semicap revenues comes from China. If someone has it, I'd love to know. That should provide a handle on the revenue stream and Fabs get built outside of China.

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