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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding
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To: DinoNavarre who wrote (10056)12/20/2022 8:11:54 PM
From: E_K_S1 Recommendation

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DinoNavarre

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Re: Banks & Liquidity - Could we see another 2008/2009 Black Swann

Are you seeing anything about potential bank defaults from either the Too Big To Fail Banks (including Credit Suisse - Credit Suisse Near Fresh Lows as Analysts Flag Credibility Hit) or Regional Banks/Credit Unions?

I believe there may/could be a potential Black Swan 'blow-up' event lurking. Lot's of talk about Bail-In for very large depositors. If rates continue to rise, continued Stagflation and/or increase in unemployment, we could see mortgage and/or loan defaults (especially those approved when easy money was available at zero rates).

The first indication of something bad is liquidity dry's up, limits on withdrawals and defaults.

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I am cautious on stocks I buy looking at Debt/Equity <= 1x. The lower the better.

Not sure what the best defense is other than have cash in several brokerages/credit union. Loan defaults create an opportunity to Buy real estate at a discount. I have been nibbling at REITs that are undervalued but have huge growing FCF (and small debt).

Been hearing chatter today that there maybe some liquidity issues out there and perhaps the Fed has been providing a back stop (ie repo market).

NY Fed paper ties reverse repo surge to bank regulation change
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