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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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ajtj99
To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (75157)12/29/2022 1:15:27 PM
From: Jacob Snyder1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 97817
 
Another guess for SPX low in 2023: 2940 seekingalpha.com

I expect a lot of earnings resets in Q1 and Q2. My forecast is the full year coming in closer to $210, than 5.8% higher around 240, that analysts on aggregate ( FactSet) are forecasting...

At some point, probably around 3000 on the S&P 500, we see the Fed start to pivot towards financing debts versus controlling inflation, which is hopefully subdued by then….

here's what I see in 2023:

A Fed pause on raising rates sometime in Q2 or Q3.QT carrying on until, at least, September or Q4.Tightening financial conditions into autumn.GDP likely to be negative in Q1 and under 2% for full year.Unemployment staying under 5% (giving cover).
After the low:
There will be a few catalysts for a new bull market. The first will be the Federal Reserve backing off of its hawkishness. Again, I see that in Q3 or Q4.

The stock market will anticipate a lovey-dovey Fed once we have been in our panic room for a little while. This is why I do not see a significantly down year, even though I see a new bottom being put in.

Here's why the Fed will back off, and it's directly related to the macroeconomics discussion above:

Russian energy becomes less important over time.China has to produce to keep their masses happy and make a buck.Employment is tight almost everywhere.
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