IMO, the most important thing that happened up front was that Biden effectively gave his tacit approval to an "incursion" by indicating if wasn't a huge blunder, not such a big deal. That, to me, was one of the worst negotiating blunders I've seen a president make, ever. It was an open invitation.
The proper interpretation for Putin to have made was, "They don't care about an incursion if it is small, and we can argue about what is big vs. small later. I have the go-ahead."
And ASAP, the next day, the WH itself issued a correction:
White House looks to clarify Biden's 'minor incursion' comment on Russia and Ukraine
Press secretary Jen Psaki said the U.S. response to an invasion would be “swift, severe, and united,” after the president said it would depend on the severity of Russia’s actions.
There is no way Trump would have made a blunder like that. Of course, it happened late in the process, and IMO Trump would never have let it get to that point. When Putin started assembling men and materiel Trump would have been protesting loudly and I expect Putin would have known where Trump stood and so would the rest of this country. I don't think there would have been dallying about Ukraine's situation: Trump would have made it personal.
Of course, maybe I'm all wet and Trump would have let it go until something actually happened. Trump never wanted to get into any war, that seemed pretty clear.
I just don't think Putin would have questioned whether Trump would have aggressively acted to prevent a big problem in the region.
It will be interesting to hear what Trump think he would do about it two years from now. That's a horse of a different color. |
