Don't get me wrong, I don't pretend to be able to predict what the semiconductor or semi equipment sectors are going to do near term. As Ian said, Kurlak's been very wrong before, but I always listen to those guys ever since Brett Hodess got the Cymer thing pretty much right, to a nearly unanimous chorus of boos and ridicule, and legion accusations of stock manipulation. I took him seriously and it saved me buckets of money.
One sector I will predict, and that is chipsets for ASDL light, which ought to start cranking very late this year and be in full force sometime in 1999 -- I want to say spring or summer, but these things have, in the past, taken longer than anyone predicted. There are a lot of companies on board, though, it's hard to pick a winner unless you just like, say, LU or ADI or AMD or MO anyway, then you'd have to think ASDL participation is a plus. I have a little Aware and would get some ADI but it's kind of tame for my blood. |
