OTOH, looking like peace might happen between Turkey & Syria
bloomberg.com
Turkey Closes in on Russia-backed Assad Deal in Blow for US
Erdogan will embrace Assad’s rule if he rules out Kurds Russia, UAE back idea which would weaken US influence
Firat Kozok
6 January 2023 at 15:50 GMT+8
Turkey, Russia and the United Arab Emirates are redoubling efforts to rehabilitate Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, and shape the decade-long war in his country to the detriment of US-backed forces.
Turkey, which backed the 2011 rebellion against Assad, is now prepared to publicly recognize his rule over Syria and work to rebuild diplomatic, security and trade ties, people briefed on the Turkish position said.
In return, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants Assad to rule out allowing the US-backed Kurdish YPG to form an autonomous area in northern parts of the country that they currently control, as part of any future peace agreement, the people said.
Erdogan floated the idea of meeting with Assad as recently as Thursday after high-level meetings between Syrian and Turkish officials last week in Moscow.
“We will come together as leaders according to the developments,” Erdogan said in reference to a future meeting with Assad and Putin.
Turkey, Syria Ministers Hold First Meeting Since Civil War Began
The shift is backed by Assad’s major military ally Russia and the UAE, which has sought to improve Assad’s standing in the Middle East to help balance Iranian influence in Syria. Syria remains under strict Western sanctions and is suspended from the Arab League.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had originally proposed Turkey repair ties with Assad last year during a meeting with Erdogan in Sochi. Now Erdogan has warmed to such a deal as he heads into elections this summer, the people said, as he seeks to use foreign policy to bolster his popularity at home. For Russia, such a deal will help it show it can successfully challenge US influence in Syria.
“We will not normalize and we do not support other countries normalizing relations with the Assad regime,” US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Thursday when asked about a potential Erdogan-Assad meeting.
“We’ve seen reports of potential meetings, whether it’s a bilateral meeting, whether it is a trilateral discussion involving Russia as well,” he said.
Erdogan’s asked Russia to ensure the safety of Syrian refugees who could return home as fighting eases, the people said. He wants to ease the political and economic cost of hosting the world’s largest refugee population, or some 3.5 million people according to UN estimates. Pushing for a return, or the start of one, helps boost his popularity ahead of elections, the people said.
Erdogan Urges Meeting With Putin and Assad in Syria Policy Shift
Syria’s uprising quickly morphed into an international conflict drawing in Russia, Iran, Turkey and the US and reverberating across the Middle East and Europe. Assad remains under US and European sanctions over the war which the UN estimates has killed more than 350,000 civilians. Russia and Iran used the conflict to deploy and test out arms which are now operating in Ukraine.
Erdogan’s repeatedly warned of a Turkish incursion in northern Syria to push back the YPG, something the US has said could embolden Islamic State militants and other hardline fighters still present there.
A political deal with Assad could help Erdogan claim a victory against the YPG without risking a military operation and greater US ire, the people said, adding that Russian and Turkish troops are expected to start joint patrols along border areas with northern Syria soon. Syria could also start coordinated patrols in the future there.
The YPG and allied fighters in northern areas of Syria bordering Turkey are supported by the United States and estimated to control roughly a third of Syria’s territory. Ankara views the YPG as a threat due to its ties to an outlawed Kurdish group which has sought self-rule in Turkey for decades. The Syrian government also opposes any form of eventual Kurdish autonomy in Syria.
All About the YPG, the Syrian Kurds Vexing Turkey: QuickTake
The foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and Syria are expected to meet this month to discuss the decade-long conflict and how to align their interests, people familiar with the preparations said.
As part of a flurry of diplomatic activity around Syria, the UAE’s foreign minister met Assad in Damascus on Wednesday and reiterated support for a political solution to the conflict.
The wealthy Gulf state has moved closer to Assad, with the Syrian president visiting the country last year, his first trip to an Arab state since the start of the war. It was one of the strongest signs that Gulf leaders who initially supported a rebellion against him are ready to welcome Damascus back into the Arab fold. |
